ASSESSMENT OF RARE EVENT FREQUENCIES OFTEN REQUIRES SIGNIFI-CANT RELIANCE ON EXPERT JUDGEMENT DUE TO THE SCARCITY OF EMPIRICAL DATA.

ASSESSMENT OF RARE EVENT FREQUENCIES OFTEN REQUIRES SIGNIFI-CANT RELIANCE ON EXPERT JUDGEMENT DUE TO THE SCARCITY OF EMPIRICAL DATA. IN THIS WORK, FORMAL MODELS FOR USING THE OPINIONS OF SINGLE AND MULTIPLE EXPERTS WILL BE EVALUATED INLIGNT OF EMPIRICAL DATA. THE OBJECTIVE IS TO SEE TO WHAT EXTENT THE EMPIRICAL DATA "VALIDATES" THE EXPERTS' ESTIMATES, AS WELL AS THE MODELS USED FOR ANALYZING SUCH ESTIMATES. THE RESULT OF THE COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF EXPERT OPINION ANDEMPIRICAL DATA WILL THEN BE USED TO DEFINE AREAS FOR REFINE MENT IN THE EXISTING FORMAL METHODS AND IN ENHANCING THEIR APPLICABILITY IN PRACTICE. THE ABOVE WORK WILL BE PERFORMED USING CASE STUDIES OF RARE EVENTS FOR WHICH BOTH EXPERT ESTIMATES AND EMPIRICAL DATA ARE AVAILABLE.