Optimal Decision Analysis Tool for Selecting Life Extension Options

ARA along with its team member Ryan International Airlines proposes to develop an innovative stochastic decision tool for selecting among the various life extensions options for aging aircraft. The methodology is based on a genetic algorithm search that can efficiently choose among various alternatives. The search algorithm retrieves input from a relational database designed to store and manage the aircraft operational, inspection, maintenance and rehabilitation history. The database is also designed to maintain the system logic describing the relationship between component failures, system performance, and current status data. Thus, life extension options can be evaluated mechanistically and their impact on system performance can be quantified via a Markovian transition probability model. Ryan International will provide the necessary experience and data to guide development of the system, based on their experiences with their fleet of 46 jet cargo aircraft. In Phase I, operation of the system will be demonstrated via application to an actual aircraft. Also a prototype graphical user interface will be developed for the software to allow intuitive operation of the system.