A Visibility Risk Assessment Tool for Maritime Operations

Visibility is a critical factor in maritime operations, impacted by various atmospheric conditions such as fog, heavy drizzle, large waves and spray under strong wind conditions, and other obstructions. Operational numerical weather prediction (NWP) models traditionally consider temperature, moisture, and aerosol concentrations (if available), and may struggle to accurately forecast visibility. Reduced visibility conditions impact maritime operations via decreased speed and safety in movement of commercial fleets, and increased costs through poor fuel load planning, longer transits, and restrictions of harbor operations. Applied Ocean Sciences (AOS) proposes advanced visibility forecast methods by incorporating additional environmental fields and leveraging machine learning techniques for improved accuracy. Phase II will continue the development of our visibility risk assessment tool, which utilizes ensemble forecasts of environmental variables alongside enhanced visibility conditions and risk assessment codes. A shipping economics model will be expanded to explore, quantify, and communicate the impacts of reduced visibility on maritime operations. The products from this R&D will include discretized spatial risk maps accessible via a cloud-based API and a user-friendly web interface. These tools will provide valuable insights for more informed planning, decision-making, and navigation. The commercial market for a reduced visibility risk assessment tool for maritime operations covers everything from recreational boaters to the cruise line industry to large commercial shipping companies. For example, reduced visibility in the Gulf of Mexico costs the cruise line industry millions of dollars annually; across maritime industries, poor visibility conditions cause delays and losses of hundreds of millions of dollars. Improved visibility forecasts created during these efforts and incorporated into our risk assessment frameworks will aid in routing, fuel loading, and safety planning. Resultant risk assessment data will be accessible in multiple formats for customers to purchase to view and/or integrate into their platforms. Risk assessment data will be licensed through a front-end agnostic cloud-based API and web-based risk maps will be available via a subscription service. The combination of regularly updating maps and streaming data will make this risk assessment tool available to the broadest audience and have the largest impact on increasing maritime safety and commerce