Monitor and Forecast System for Airport and Network Operational Risk

The Monitor for Airport and Network Operational Risk (MANOR) aims to be a single source for integrating multiple sources of data to monitor and forecast combinations of conditions at major airports that generate operational risk. MANOR monitors and forecasts operating conditions at individual airports and captures interactions with other airports through an Airport Dependency Index. MANOR aims to address traffic flow disruptions from demand-capacity imbalances by focusing on factors that interrupt schedule execution and efficient operations. MANOR does not address the detailed considerations that go into flight planning, such as airport elevation, airport opening and closing times, and certification for CAT III landings. MANOR consists of two components: Airport Operational Risk Component monitors and forecasts each airport for potential exposure to disruptive factors and provides estimates of those impacts. Airport Dependency Model Network Component addresses network effects and identifies the impacts on airport efficiency due to upstream and downstream effects from other airports. Together, these components provide operators and the FAA a comprehensive decision support system to monitor the overall operational status of the NAS and provide detailed insight into potential operational risks for individual airports. The system provides current status on the most recent data sources and forecasts up to 15 hours in advance. Different forecast models will offer different forecast periods depending on the value of an extended forecast and the accuracy of the forecast method. For example, MANOR will provide hourly arrival rate forecast probabilities 15 hours in advance. This offers an airline dispatch manager coming on duty at 0600 an extended perspective on the possible operational challenges for that day. The dispatch manager coming on duty for the overnight shift will have access to forecasts for the following day to support planning for the next day.