Development of a Cost Estimation Tool for Advanced Reactor Production, Deployment and Operations

Nuclear reactor deployment costs have historically been significantly higher than the costs estimated prior to deployment, with realized costs being approximately three times higher than the planned costs. About 97% of nuclear reactors deployed worldwide running into cost or schedule overruns. The causes of these high nuclear reactor deployment costs include scale, complexity, and various site-based challenges such as quality control, and high manpower and mobilization costs amongst several other factors. Therefore, there is a need for a methodology to develop a cost estimate for advanced reactor and microreactor deployment, with a high degree of accuracy. The objective of the proposed project is to develop a stochastic model to estimate the cost of production and deployment of an advanced reactor, such as a small modular reactor (SMR) or a microreactor. The outcome of the proposed project is a tool that can assist reactor vendors in mitigating potential cost and schedule overruns through the identification of risk and uncertainty drivers, which will be identified, assessed and mitigated early. This will considerably reduce costs and shorten the deployment timeline of multiple SMRs and microreactors. The tool can thus be developed and commercialized into a product beneficial to the entire nuclear industry. For Phase I of the proposed project, a comprehensive review of existing literature will be performed for the collection of publicly available information on the production and deployment costs of various commercial microreactor types. Several existing assumptions and historical data on reactor construction cost will be evaluated to develop a set of assumptions for the cost estimation model. A compendium of all known and novel risks associated with reactor cost and schedule overruns will be developed, including risks such as issues with mass production due to poor quality assurance at factories, oligopolistic risks due to the fabrication of reactor components at a limited number of specialist facilities, and disruptions in the supply chain as a result. The project will focus on the development of a stochastic cost estimation model using a bo􀆩oms-up approach, using the relevant Code of Accounts focusing on microreactors and advanced reactors. A parametric study will be performed to allow assessment of critical parameters with sensitivity and criticality assessment of the stochastic model. The tool developed over the course of the proposed project will assist reactor vendors in mitigating potential cost and schedule overruns through the early identification, assessment and mitigation of risk and uncertainty drivers. It is envisioned that the tool will be applicable towards a wide variety of advanced reactors. The proposed project is of value for the nuclear industry because of its potential to considerably reduce costs and shorten the deployment timeline of multiple advanced reactors. In summary, the proposed project aims to develop a stochastic cost estimation tool for SMRs and microreactors, regardless of the reactor technology. This process will incorporate novel risks associated with the deployment of advanced reactors, thereby reducing their deployment costs and shortening their deployment timelines by mitigating cost and schedule overruns.