Space Weather Forecasting Toolset to Support Operations

Space weather phenomena such as solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and associated solar particle events (SPEs) can damage critical space-based and terrestrial infrastructure. Operators of such systems have a compelling need for a capability to forecast major space weather storms and potential effects towards risk mitigation. Currently available tools are research-oriented and may not be suitable for operational use. CFD Research and the University of Alabama in Huntsville propose to develop a novel Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) toolset by enhancing and integrating existing research codes into a software product for situational assessment and decision making related to space operations. Key technology features and innovations include: (1) efficient coupling between component codes that describe inner heliosphere, particle energization, and transport of solar energetic particles; (2) modularity via standardized interfaces for data exchange; (3) development in consultation with NASA and selected end users; (4) improved numerical algorithms and physics models of component codes; and (5) customized configuration of the final product for transition to operations (R2O). During Phase I, we have identified potential end users and technology transition avenues; derived RISCS design requirements for operational use; identified features, relevant performance metrics, and limitations of existing space weather modeling software; and derived a RISCS toolset design for operational performance and R2O transition. During Phase II, we will fully implement the software framework, improve numerical/physics models of component codes, extensively test RISCS for error detection and handling, run end-to-end simulations of the modular code to demonstrate that RISCS meets the specified design requirements, and customize and deliver RISCS to selected end users.nbsp;