Space Weather Forecasting Toolset to Support Operations

Space weather phenomena such as solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and associated solar particle events (SPEs) can damage critical space-based and terrestrial infrastructure. Operators of such systems are in critical need of a capability to forecast major space weather storms and potential effects towards risk mitigation. Currently available tools are research-oriented and may not be suitable for operational use. CFD Research and the University of Alabama in Huntsville propose to develop a novel Radiation, Interplanetary Shocks, and Coronal Sources (RISCS) toolset by enhancing and integrating existing research codes into a software product for situational assessment and decision making related to space operations. Key technology features and innovations include: (1) efficient coupling between component codes that describe inner heliosphere and transport of solar energetic particles; (2) modularity via standardized interfaces for data exchange and user interfaces; (3) development in consultation with NASA and selected end users; (4) improved component codes numerical and physics models; (5) customized configuration of final product for transition to end user operations (R2O/O2R). In Phase I, we will (1) identify potential ends users and technology transition avenues; (2) derive RISCS design requirements t for operational use; (3) characterize features, performance, and limitations of existing space weather modeling software; (4) enhance RISCS toolset via improved interfaces for data exchange, user input, etc.; (5) demonstrate operational performance of a toolset prototype and derive plans for continued R2O/O2R. During Phase II, we will improve component codes numerical/physics models, extensively test RISCS to improve error detection and handling, demonstrate modularity via swap-out of component codes, run end-to-end simulations of the modular code to demonstrate that RISCS meets the specified design requirements, customize and deliver RISCS to selected end user.