NEXT-GENERATION DEBRIS PREDICTION METHOD FOR HARDENED STRUCTURES

A-P-T Research, Inc. (APT) and teammates, Karagozian & Case (K&C) and Applied Research Associates (ARA), are proposing to develop an innovative Fast-Running Model (FRM) for Debris Prediction Methodology (DPM) for hardened structure secondary debris that will enhance existing Navy and Department of Defense (DoD) site planning and design methodologies and tools. APT will utilize state-of-the-art High-Fidelity Physics-Based (HFPB) computational tools to generate synthetic data to be used for development of a new FRM. HFPB computational tools have made substantial progress in their fidelity and reliability and have become a proven technology capable of accurately predicting the response and breakup of structures and the associated secondary debris. Proper use of HFPB tools by expert users can generate the necessary data for a new DPM FRM within the scope of a SBIR program. However, traditional HFPB methods are difficult for DoD stakeholders to verify and validate, require large computational resources (CPU time and memory) for any one weapon-target-interaction (WTI) scenario, and are challenging to reduce and simplify to modify the existing methodologies. With this in mind, the APT team propose conducting a Research and Development (R&D) effort towards solving three key challenges: (1) incorporating reliability analysis and stochastic procedures into the recently developed HFPB Coupled Computational Fluid Dynamics and Computational Solid Dynamics (CFD/CSD) computational models capable of predicting the response, limit states, and secondary debris of structures in expedited time scales; (2) developing methods to validate the HFPB CFD/CSD models with existing and future sub-scale and full-scale test data; and (3) developing FRMs that utilize both experimental and computational secondary debris data to enhance the existing methodologies in the DoD’s Technical Papers. By the end of Phase II, APT plans to deliver DPM FRMs that provide improved analytic capabilities and a debris-specific model that will do for debris prediction what TP-17/Blast Effects Computer (BEC) has done for airblast prediction, i.e., provide a , i.e., fast-running, reliable, and easy to use tool. APT anticipates that the results of the proposed R&D can directly support the Navy in upgrading the methodologies to improve design regulations and standard designs for magazines, including hardened structures. APT is well-positioned to lead the effort to support the Navy in a transition to modern viable tools for secondary debris prediction. APT’s background in explosives safety, secondary debris data collection and processing, and in FRM development will supply key insights to ensure that the FRM will meet Naval Ordnance Safety and Security Activity (NOSSA) needs. Further, by partnering with K&C and ARA, the team will bring state-of-the-art CFD, finite element and mesh-free CSD, Coupled CFD/CSD, and hybrid computational capabilities to ensure a highly innovative solution.