Advances in Nuclear Plant Physical Security Modeling and Simulation to link existing nuclear power plant reactor system response, force-on-force modeling and situational uncertainty.

Current state of the art modeling and simulation for nuclear power plant physical security is based upon a physic- based geospatial model that models the physical plant and then simulates an attack on that facility and the security forces response to that attack. The most advanced of these tools use a repathing engine to determine the most vulnerable access points, the attacker’s probable path and the most advantageous response by the security forces. This repathing engine then adjusts the attackers’ and responders’ actions as the events occur. One issue with the current state of the art is that the modeling and simulation does not account for changes in plant status during a security event. These changes could impact the effectiveness of the response and incorporation of these changes will alter the proposed response during the event to improve overall response during the event. A physical security modeling and simulation tool that utilizes a repathing engine to automate dynamic path finding for planning and combat modeling will be reviewed to determine the feasibility of extending the tool to include changes in plant conditions, such as the thermal status of the plant or changes to controls that could impact margin to failure. Negative outcomes can be reduced by including the responses needed to prevent damage to the physical plant. A dynamic repathing engine can ensure that the response most likely to ensure a successful response to an event is selected. The feasibility of incorporating a plant condition modeling and simulation tool from a national laboratory that models and simulates the physical plant of a nuclear facility through dynamic probabilistic risk assessment will be reviewed to determine the most efficient means of integration with the physical security tool. This will allow the physical security tool to evaluate outcomes and response plans that incorporates plant changes to determine most the effective response to the event from plant status as well as a security perspective. In phase 1 discussions will be held with a national laboratory and industry experts to determine data requirements for the integration of the two modeling and simulation tools, as well as the best method of presenting the results of the integrated simulation to the user for optimum response planning. Based on this a design will be developed for the Phase II prototype. By extending the modeling and simulation of a physical security modeling and simulation tool to include changes in plant status a plant operator could improve the response effectiveness to security events at their facilities. This feature will most likely be incorporated as a module of the existing physical security commercial product for distribution. This would allow plant operators to determine if integrated plant condition and security modeling and simulation are required for their installation, or if individual tools that perform these tasks are best suited to their facility. The new software module for the commercial product will allow plant operators the ability to improve their response plans via this integrated modeling and simulation approach.