Patient-level Risk Identifier Models for a Multifactor Opioid Abuse Risk Assessment Strategy

ABSTRACT For this Phase I projectPrincipled Strategies will develop innovativepatient level models for opioid risk identification and integrate them into the SafeUseNow managed care systeman actionable solution for combating prescription drug abuse that currently operates at the prescriber level onlyIncorporating patient level risk identifier models will strengthen an already powerful and demonstrably effective program and constitutes a critical step in generating a first in classmultifactor risk assessment strategy that is truly holisticUsing a variety of data sourcesadvanced analyticsand multiple empirically validated risk identification modelsthe groundbreaking advancement in SafeUseNow technology will enable healthcare stakeholders to identify combinations of prescriberspatientsand pharmacies whose behaviors may contribute to prescription drug abuseExpanding the capabilities of the system in this way will permit earlier identification of potential high risk patientsenabling new approaches to eliminate high risk prescription activitiesTo achieve these objectivesour Phase I project entails the following AimsRequestreceive and assess Centers for Medicare andampMedicaid ServicesCMSanalytic datasetSupplement CMS datasets with alternatively sourced descriptive data for dimension tablesBuild national patient level risk identification models for all outcomes of interestSuccessful completion of this Phase I project will yield one or more patient level opioid risk assessment of models that meet target performance levelse gsensitivityspecificitypositive prediction valueThis will enable Phase II research and development to incorporate regional and state level datasetsdetermine the preferred scale of implementation for productionlocal vsnationaland evaluate risk identificationwhich is expected to be significantly improvedThe completed next generation SafeUseNow prototypewith its combination of prescriberand patient level risk modelswill then be ready for pilot studies to demonstrate the improved capacity of the managed care system to eliminate excessive and higher risk prescription activityultimately reducing opioid useopioid overdosesoverdose related mortalityand the prevalence of opioid use disorder Principled Strategyandapos s comprehensive risk assessment tool for opioids will offer a multifaceted and holistic solution for insurance companiesnetworksand state and local governments to identify various combinations of prescriberspatientsand pharmacies whose behaviors may contribute to prescription drug abuse