Interactive Tool for Modeling Multiple Solar Eruptions

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are huge explosions that propel plasma and magnetic field away from the Sun and are the primary cause of major geomagnetic storms. Predicting in advance whether observed CMEs will hit the Earth and carry geo-effective magnetic fields is a long-term priority for the CCMC, located at NASA GSFC, as well as other groups within and outside of NASA. Such predictions are extremely challenging, and magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) simulations are considered to be the most promising tool for achieving them.Our interactive and highly automated MHD modeling framework, CORHEL-AMCG, will allow users to routinely model multiple observed CMEs in a realistic coronal and solar-wind environment and to propagate modeled CMEs to 1 AU. CORHEL-AMCG is designed to account for the complexity of pre-CME configurations, the slow initiation of CMEs, and their interaction in the corona and interplanetary space. By modeling the magnetic as well as the dynamical evolution of CMEs, CORHEL-AMCG can predict the negative Bz component of the interplanetary field arising from the CME, which is the primary driver of geo-effectiveness. These advances will make CORHEL-AMCG particularly useful scientifically and constitute a major step towards operational space-weather forecasting. CORHEL-AMCG will be delivered to the CCMC by the end of Phase II. nbsp;Our vision beyond Phase II is to transition CORHEL-AMCG into an operational forecasting tool.The proposed work is directly relevant to NASA#39;s NSWAP activities, as it will quot;provide increased understanding of the fundamental physics of the Sun-Earth system through modelingquot;, and it will contribute to NASA#39;s Research-to-Operations/Operations-to-Research (R2O/O2R) responsibilities by aiding in the quot;preparation and validation of existing science models in preparation for transition to operationsquot; and providing quot;ideas for future models tied to space weather forecasting needsquot;, as stated in subtopic S5.06 of the FY 2018 SBIR/STTR Research topics.