The Global Equatorial Scintillation MOdel (GESMO)

The Air Force and Joint Services rely on satellite-based navigation, positioning, and communication systems that are vulnerable to ionospheric space weather effects. Fluctuations in the amplitude and phase of trans-ionospheric radio wave signals, known as scintillation, degrade the performance and reliable operation of GPS, navigation, and communication systems, which affects critical military operations in the field. The national space weather strategy seeks to identify new approaches to reduce uncertainties in understanding the Sun-Earth system. Although progress has been made in modeling ionospheric irregularities that cause scintillation, existing models do not employ real-time data or resolve small-scale ionospheric structures for operational needs. The next generation of scintillation models are expected to provide forecasts of location, timing and severity of ionospheric scintillation with greater spatio-temporal resolution and reliability. The ASTRA team will develop a conceptual framework for a next generation scintillation model capable of fulfilling the current and future needs of the Air Force. We will identify data sources that will be used to develop, drive, and calibrate the model, and develop methodologies for integrating the model into AF operational systems. We will perform proof-of-concept analysis that demonstrates the forecasting capability of the model, and will develop metrics of model performance.