Theater Anti-Submarine Warfare Contextual Reasoning

The Theater ASW Contextual Reasoning system (TASW-CR) will present a set of mission objectives for a threat submarine to analysts on the watch floor and allow them to use available information to evaluate and weight likely mission objectives. Using these mission objectives and contextual information such as weather, geographic features, state of hostilities, and location of blue forces, combined with sparse contact information on the submarine and other hostile forces, TASW-CR will produce constrained estimates in terms of probability distributions on the present and future state of the threat submarine. The probability distributions will be produced by a non-linear Bayesian tracker that is capable of using probabilistic motion models representing the mission objectives identified by the analysts and incorporating the contextual information to reduce the AOA size for the present and future state of the threat submarine compared to using only the sparse contact information.