Probabilities of Business Impact Variables from CFS2 Ensembles

The value of the subseasonal and seasonal probability (S2S) forecasts of the NWS Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFS2) will increase substantially when they are converted into forecasts about business impact variables such as degree days, wind and solar power potential, end-of-season crop yield, water resource variables, and extremes of both weather and impacts themselves. In Phase II, our Phase I developmental forecasts of impact variables created from CFS2 forecasts will become operational and available to customers. Computing the forecasts and verification over a historical period will demonstrate the remarkable skill and reliability achieved as a result of new and novel calibration techniques developed in Phase I. The impact variable forecasts from operational CFS2 forecasts can then be combined with that forecast skill to show decision makers the expected consequences of acting at various predicted probabilities to seize opportunity or mitigate adverse events. Phase II will provide web-based interactive decision advisory systems tailored to industries such as energy, agriculture, transportation, insurance, and finance so that decision makers can assess alternative action, reduce climate variability risk, and increase profit, thus demonstrating that the value of our forecasts lies in the action they motivate and the favorable consequences that follow.