Enhancing Subseasonal and Seasonal (S2S) Forecasts To Better Serve Business and Industry

The importance of weather and climate variability forecasts in the U.S. is amply demonstrated by the billions of dollars appropriated annually for the NWS and for surface, air, and satellite observations and by the existence of a vibrant private weather enterprise delivering value-added forms of NWS information to a wide range of public and private users. We have loyal customers in the energy sector, here and abroad, and are developing a strong reputation and following with our crop yield and production forecasts. Phase II accomplishments will include:  Development and implementation of an optimally skillful global multi-model for probability forecasts  Model calibration conditioned on climate indices  A new focus on predicting extreme events  Creation of ensembles combining both dynamical and statistical forecasts  Exploration of promising new forecast opportunities with statistical methods and machine learning  Collaboration with selected energy and agriculture customers to sharpen understanding of user needs  Development of products focused on user decision-making processes Thus we will strengthen our assistance to NOAA in meeting its mission to share its information and will better serve our customers in business and industry, thereby assisting NOAA in meeting the mandates of the Weather Act (PL 115-25,2017).