A system to Predict and Analyze Novel and emerging Diseases Enabled by Models of Infection Conditions (PANDEMIC)

Incidences of infectious disease pose serious threats to armed forces worldwide, risking the success of critical operations and can be responsible for the deaths of Warfighters. Current approaches attempt to reduce severity of disease impact to operational forces by detecting, monitoring, and treating infected personnel after exposure, but this does not effectively maintain and sustain force health. Force medical personnel need support to predict and analyze the risk a particular disease will present in an area of operations (AO), synchronized with dynamic operational tempos. To provide such support, we propose to design and demonstrate a system to Predict and Analyze Novel and emerging Diseases Enabled by Models of Infection Conditions (PANDEMIC). PANDEMIC will provide infectious disease outbreak prediction support via three key components: (1) a library of individual infectious disease conditions pertinent to disease outbreaks for various AOs; (2) model management capabilities to both define sets of relevant conditions and refine underlying conditional probabilities to match novel AO conditions for dynamic scenarios; and (3) visualization support aids that foster trust with a disease models results, enabling Warfighters to visually review predictions and relevant contextual data for a selected AO and disease model.