Modeling of Cyber Behaviors to Wargame and Assess Risk (MOC-WAR)

Adversaries are launching increasingly proficient cyber attacks against our militarys infrastructure. While the Navy has focused significant resources on cyber defense, current defense tools are largely reactive in nature, addressing events after the initial attack. Augmenting our cyber defense with proactive tools to analyze the goals and decision-making processes of adversaries will enable cyber defenders to shape the battlespace, thereby limiting and even driving adversary options, and reducing the threat on our military infrastructure. To do this, cyber defenders need to understand the motivations, goals, behaviors, and limitations of those adversaries, and how those factors interact with policies, users, and defenses. To address these needs, in Phase I we designed and demonstrated a system for Modeling Cyber Behaviors to Wargame and Assess Risk (MOC-WAR). MOC-WAR provides a hybrid, modular Behavior Modeling Framework to construct flexible adversary, defender and user models that can be rapidly updated as adversary strategies evolve. Using these models, MOC-WAR provides simulation engines and analysis tools that allow analysts and defenders to wargame behavioral interactions with adversaries, and proactively select policies and defenses that minimize adversary threats. Based on our Phase I success, we recommend a Phase II effort to develop and evaluate a full-scope MOC-WAR system.