CEDAR (Complex Event Discovery, Analysis, and Ranking)

Successful intelligence operations require the ability to anticipate enemy actions in time to prevent or mitigate their impact. These actions are often part of a complex set of events; for example, an assault on a specific place can involve planning and logistics activity as well as the coordinated movement of multiple actors. Complex event processing (CEP) techniques are a promising technology to enable the detection of emerging threats by monitoring intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance (ISR) data for combinations of simple behaviors which are indicative of enemy attack planning. By recognizing emerging complex events in this way, ISR data can be interpreted to extract timely actionable intelligence. 21st Century Technologies, Inc. with academic partner Calspan-University of Buffalo Research Center (CUBRC), is developing the Complex Event Discovery, Analysis, and Ranking (CEDAR) system to meet this operational need. In the STTR Phase 2 effort, we propose to enhance CUBRC"s existing CEP technology to operate in the asymmetric threat domain, where enemy tactics are highly variable and dynamic. We will also perform research to leverage the simple behaviors detected from multiple INT sources. By the end of Phase 2, we will have produced a prototype system that can detect emerging threats on operational data.