Assessing Climate Change Effects on Wind Energy

Since wind turbines can have a lifetime of 20-30 years, estimates of the fluctuations of the variables affecting their energy output must be made for a similar time frame to project expected energy production. Climate variability and change over the lifetime of a wind production facility has the potential to alter the characteristics of the climate variables affecting wind energy production, and hence wind energy production itself. Preliminary evidence suggests this may pose a substantial risk to wind energy revenue streams. We propose to develop software tools to allow wind energy stakeholders to assess effects of climate change wind power production. To lay the groundwork for this effort, we will assess the geographical, seasonal, and diurnal distribution of changes in wind power production in a regional climate change simulation and in the global climate simulations contained in the DOE PCMDI archive. We will pay particular attention to changes in extreme events, as these likely have the most significant impacts on power production and turbine downtime. Commercial Applications and Other Benefits: The Phase I effort will lay the groundwork for a commercial software tool that will incorporate climate change effects into long-term wind farm project analysis and risk assessment for the first time. We will make this software tool compatible with currently existing financial analysis, business intelligence, and enterprise wide accounting packages