Current Event Future Outcome Framework

Many government agencies share the need to determine the best courses of action that diminish the long range threat, vulnerability or impact from a potential event that affects our domestic population or infrastructure. We propose to develop a functional prototype of the Current Event - Future Outcome (CEFO) software we described in Phase I, which will leverage the existing wealth of domain-specific and integrated models from many sources, along with innovative techniques drawn from probabilistic risk assessment, decision theory, and statistical analysis. We will reuse and customize software from other sources to create a workflow platform that can accommodate various existing infrastructure models. We will develop user-friendly interfaces in creating this prototype. We will collaborate with another government agency to demonstrate the effectiveness of the prototype by modeling a regional infrastructure scenario of interest. This will demonstrate that CEFO can provide useful understanding of the complex interrelationships between actions and effects in an interconnected domestic infrastructure. The demonstration will show how the software enables government planners to easily apply systems dynamics methodologies to analyze the impact of events, and potential responsive actions as they relate to the physical, economic, or social infrastructure.