Current Event - Future Outcome (CEFO) Predictive Framework

Critical infrastructure is the backbone on which this country's success and prosperity are built. As a highly technically advanced nation, we rely heavily on our infrastructure to support all of the challenges of everyday life from providing power, heat, and water to communications, financial transactions, emergency services, and countless other functions without which this country would cease to operate. This foundation, however, is vulnerable, While a considerable number of tools exist to aid decision makers in examining the impact of well defined disaster events, little research has been done to provide real-time analysis and decision support for emerging, dynamic threats. Under this SBIR, High Performance Technologies proposes the creation of the Current Event - Future Outcome, CEFO, Predictive Framework, which will leverage modern advances in predictive capability with mathematical sensitivity and factor analysis to provide enhanced support for analysts and policy makers as events are occurring. Through the use of a three-layered architecture, CEFO will allow users to identify and prioritize key, event specific factors throughout all stages of the event chain and provide predictive insight into the potential impact and associated risks of emerging threats.