Optimal Durability and Reliability Testing of Gas Turbine Components

This proposal outlines the development of innovative technologies applied in a practical and cost effective methodology for determining gas turbine engine reliability. The approach is to produce a set of test procedures enhancing the processes and alternatives in adequately demonstrating the durability and reliability of military gas turbine engines while minimizing cost and test hours. The design hierarchy for a typical turbine engine may be decomposed into layers for each subsystem, assembly, component and structural element. System level reliability can be predicted, based upon known lower level elements of the design. Phase I showed that it is possible to develop a Weibull-based approach to statistically “roll-up” the failure probabilities from components/subsystems to predict overall engine system reliability. Reliability assessment early in development effectively determines whether a design meets predicted life cycle goals. The technology proposed will accelerate the introduction of new designs and materials by many years and greatly decrease development and production costs. The enhancement is accomplished through a unique combination of probabilistic simulations, scaled turbine engine testing and statistical evaluation in defining a test methodology that utilizes the probabilistic approach in providing an accurate, low-cost alternative compared to the reliability assurance methods employed today.