Automated Risk Assessment Tool to Optimize Missile System Affordability Management

In recent years, there has been a strong emphasis on addressing affordability during Army Science and Technology (S&T) efforts to reduce the life-cycle cost of missile systems. Studies have shown that considering technology and manufacturing maturity, in conjunction with affordability principles during development yields significant benefits in several important area, including lower total costs and improved quality. Although progress has been made to incorporate this concept early in technology development, there are no automated, decision-aide tools available to help Army managers and analysts understand the impacts of the risks and cost trades associated with technology investments. This Phase I research will examine the feasibility of the type of affordability analysis toolset. This capability will enable developers and planners to estimate the cost impact of designs quickly and with credibility, enabling life-cycle cost, and the maturity of technology and manufacturing to be used as key elements in “best-value” design trades. The integration of technology maturity and manufacturability considerations into the cost-estimation methodology will provide a capability acknowledged by the Defense Science Board as an important issue in systems acquisition. The Phase II program will fully develop a prototype computer-analysis tool, and validate its functionality with Army-specific missile systems.