PICASA: Predictive IED Combinatorial Analysis and Simulation of Adversaries

Attacks using Improvised Explosive Devices (IEDs) are the leading cause of U.S. combat deaths and injuries in Iraq. Despite our efforts, the enemy has proven adaptable to our tactics, techniques, and procedures to stop, negate, or minimize the damage of the blast. To overcome this problem we must move up higher in the kill chain and disrupt these terrorist cells at their source. The Decisive Analytics Corporation (DAC) Team proposes an approach termed Predictive IED Combinatorial Analysis and Simulation of Adversaries (PICASA). The PICASA approach starts at the cultural and sociological level by developing models of terrorism activity through the guidance of terrorism expert Dr. Marc Sageman. DAC’s advanced data mining, social networking, and predictive analysis tools use these models to then move higher up the kill chain. PICASA provides the capability to ingest disparate data sources of intelligence data (including IED activity), identify key actors and organizations, and predict and evaluate possible coalitions of social networks. Our advanced algorithms developed under this effort will be immediately tested on live data from the theater through DAC’s Agent-based Intelligence Services (AIS) – a tool that is in the hands of the Warfighter and is performing predictive analysis on Iraq data today.