Detecting Enemy Forces United to Strike with Explosives (DEFUSE)

Soar Technology proposes to develop the Detecting Enemy Forces United to Strike with Explosives (DEFUSE) system to help address the constantly evolving IED threat at points before the IED blast. DEFUSE leverages the DARPA RAID Adversarial Reasoning Module (ARM) technology, which has been tested successfully in DARPA gate experiments over the past 2 years and is currently going through transition evaluation processes via the Joint IED Defeat Office (JIEDDO). The ARM predicts the locations, frequency, and types of IEDs (and more) based on a combination of symbolic tactical reasoning, probabilistic Bayesian reasoning, and a swarming simulation that considers many thousands of possible interactions and futures, including those involving US force activity. We propose to add to the ARM a dynamic network analysis layer (DNAL) to model activities and relationships earlier in the IED lifecycle than placement and explosion. The DEFUSE output will be a unique view of the battlefield that combines strategic and tactical views predicting (1) possible IED attacks, (2) what technologies and tactics will be employed by which factions over time, and (3) how faction structure and relationships will change due to changing technologies.