Impact Modeling and Prediction of Attacks on Cyber Targets (IMPACT)

Data fusion techniques applied to intrusion detection and network defense have recently shown promise in multi-stage attack detection and network situation assessment. However, to provide full situation awareness, cyber attack impact assessment and future attack prediction must be addressed. 21st Century Technologies presents Impact Modeling and Prediction of Attacks on Cyber Targets (IMPACT) as a solution to these issues. The specific capabilities provided by IMPACT are four-fold. First, IMPACT will identify the actions and targets that would maximize an attacker's effectiveness, given a particular goal or intent. Second, IMPACT will provide rapid assessment of the progression of an attack toward a particular goal or set of goals, which will enable efficient prioritization of attack strategies for analysts. Third, IMPACT will locate particular hosts or services within the network that are mostly likely to be future targets of an attacker, thereby increasing the effectiveness of an attack response. Last, using the knowledge gained in the prior steps, IMPACT uses a highly innovative approach to determine plausible attack vectors on the system. Together these capabilities will provide the means for rapidly assessing the impact of a series of events and predicting the future actions an attacker may pursue to further his/her intention(s) on the network.