Dynamical Stratospheric Turbulence and TLE/Lightning Forecasting and Nowcasting for High-Altitude Airships (HAA) and other Aircraft

We have defined a state-of-the-art forecasting and nowcasting ADA to support HAA operations. Our focus will be on stratospheric gravity wave (GW) and turbulence processes at altitudes to 70,000 feet. These phenomena pose the major threat to HAA (including Global Hawk and U-2) flight operations and mission performance, have resulted in the destruction of several aircraft and a pilot death in the past, and are not described explicitly by any competing methodology. Such a forecasting tool would be of considerable value to U.S. military and other entities – and a viable commercial product. The forecasting tools we will employ will account explicitly for small-scale stratospheric dynamics that cannot be resolved by traditional NWP models. These include GW excitation, propagation, and turbulence generation, all areas where we have extensive research experience. GW excitation and propagation will be described based on forecast meteorology and established ray-tracing methods. Turbulence occurrence, morphology, and statistics will be based on forecast sites and rates of GW dissipation by extending a proven, but more limited, forecast model and detailed statistical characterizations of turbulent flows. Forecasts will employ embedded high-resolution methods where needed. Data displays will employ advanced methods derived from our previous expertise in commercial weather forecasting.