Dynamical Stratospheric Turbulence and TLE/Lightning Forecasting and Nowcasting for High-Altitude Airships (HAA) and other Aircraft

We propose to define and develop state-of-the-art forecasting and nowcasting tools to support HAA operations. Our focus is on stratospheric gravity wave (GW) processes, turbulence, and transient luminous events (TLE) and related electrical discharges to altitudes of 70,000 feet. These phenomena currently threaten reconnaissance and targeting missions and in the case of GW and turbulence have resulted in the destruction of several aircraft and a pilot death. Successful forecasting tools would be of considerable value to the U.S. military and other entities. The forecasting tools we propose must explicitly account for small-scale stratospheric dynamics that cannot be resolved by traditional NWP models. Based on our extensive research experience, these include GW excitation, propagation, and turbulence generation. GW excitation and propagation will be described based on forecast meteorology and established ray-tracing methods. Turbulence occurrence, morphology, and statistics will be based on forecast sites and rates of GW dissipation by extending a proven, but more limited, forecast model and detailed simulations of turbulent flows. TLE forecasts will be based on correlations with and forecasts of deep convection. Forecasts and nowcasts will employ embedded high-resolution methods where needed. Data displays will employ advanced methods derived from our expertise in commercial weather forecasting.