Predictive Analysis Tools for PBA/IPB:Automated Course of Action Modeling

Zel Technologies proposes an operational prototype of its Automated Course of Action (COA) Modeling (ACAM) Phase I feasibility demonstration to provide an automated means of developing friendly and enemy Courses COAs. ACAM augments Joint Intelligence Preparation of the Environment (IPE) tools with a capability for automatic modeling. Currently, COA development entails substantial manual analytical and data entry effort, to the extent that the labor requirement is the main user complaint about IPE predictive analysis tools. The George Mason University Center for Secure Information Systems has developed a topological network vulnerability analysis (TVA) engine for information assurance. In the ACAM proof of concept, we demonstrated the feasibility of using IPE to model a variety of kinetic and cyberspace domains as complex networks and adapting TVA to analyze those complex networks to expand and instantiate enemy goals into effects-based COAs in the form of Attack Trees (AT). The feasibility demonstration proved that it is possible to populate IPE ATs for strategic and operational goals in addition to tactical levels. For Phase II, we propose to integrate and extend the ACAM tool to provide a system suitable for exercises, experiments, integration into the AFRL Collaboration Gateway, and technology transition in operational environments.