Model Updating and Uncertainty Management for Aircraft Prognostic Systems

This proposal addresses the integration of physics-based damage propagation models with diagnostic measures of current state of health in a mathematically rigorous method for the determination of remaining useful life. The principle goal of the proposed Phase I research is the investigation of issues associated with the integration of three independently developed algorithms (physics-based damage progression, diagnostics, and model updating architecture) in a single functioning system. Of particular interest is the ability of the proposed architecture to adequately represent the uncertainty associated with both diagnostic state estimation and loading conditions, and the propagation of such uncertainties to the remaining useful life prediction. The integrated prognostic system will be demonstrated using bearing damage (spallation) propagation models coupled with vibration derived diagnostic measures of spall severity obtained from in house testing. Following V&V of the baseline component-level prognostic system, extension of the existing technology towards support of subsystem-level (multi-model) prognostics will be pursued.