Organizational and Cultural Criteria for Adversary Modeling (OCCAM)

"We propose a Phase I program to develop and demonstrate an analyst decision aid that incorporates Organizational and Cultural Criteria in Adversary Modeling (OCCAM). We define cultural criteria (i.e., behavior moderators) as influences upon individualdecision-making and behavior that arise from affiliations with specific groups; where `group' ranges from family through professional organizations to nation and religion. This uniform conceptualization of cultural behavior moderators lends itself tooperational definitions that enable effective computational behavior prediction. Four core components characterize our approach. First, we will identify key factors moderating behavior, from psychological theory and practical field knowledge. Second, wewill develop methods for augmenting sparse and uncertain data sets characterizing asymmetric operations by inferring these key factors from the individual's group affiliations. Third, we will develop a toolkit of knowledge-based methods for behaviorprediction, and evaluate the applicability of several of these in a suitable operational scenario. This toolkit will allow us to generate ranges of possible, plausible behaviors, reflecting the challenge of unequivocal behavior prediction. Fourth, wewill integrate these concepts and methods into a computerized decision-aid that explicitly represents the uncertainty inherent in the data, as well as the reliability of the prediction methods. We