Lightning Probability Nowcasting and Forecasting with PRA Strike Insight Technology

There is a strong correlation between cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning and the altitude of the 40-dBZ radar reflectivity levels with respect to the height of the -100C level. T he proposed Phase I effort will develop an algorithm for lightning probability based upon these studies, perform basic assessment, prototype a web page for dissemination of the lightning probability or threat risk, and assess the feasibility of nowcasting lightning risk using current storm track features. Theses three primary tasks will be folded into a prototypical product for delivery at the end of Phase I. In addition, the feasibility of integrating the algorithm into the OpenRPG will be examined, as well as integrating lightning detection network data to improve the nowcasting capabilities of the algorithm, using Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) to provide 3-6 hour forecasts of lightning threat, and incorporating polarimetric radar data into the algorithm in anticipation of the NWS polarimetric upgrade.