FLUCTUATION PROCESSES FOR USE IN ACOUSTIC DETECTION MODELS

OPERATIONS ANALYSIS OF NAVAL ENGAGEMENTS REQUIRES A MODEL FOR THE DETECTION PROCESS, AND IN PARTICULAR, FOR PASSIVE ACOUSTIC SENSORS. SUCH MODELS DEPEND IN TURN ON HAVING A MODEL FOR ACOUSTIC FLUCTUATIONS, A TERM WHICH TYPICALLY DESCRIBES ALL RESIDUAL UNCERTAINTY IN THE SONAR EQUATION COMPONENTS. THIS PROJECT WILL DEVELOP A RATIONALE FOR AN ACOUSTIC FLUCTUATION PROCESS WHICH IS A COMPOSITE OF PROCESSES WHICH REPRESENT UNCERTAINTIES AND VARIATIONS IN COMPONENT PROCESSES THAT INCLUDE: TRANSMISSION LOSS, BACKGROUND NOISE, TARGET RADIATED NOISE, AND RECOGNITION DIFFERENTIAL. PHASE I WILL MAINLY INVOLVE A REVIEW OF POTENTIAL SOURCES OF DATA FOR EACH OF THE COMPONENTS AND FOR THE COMPOSITE PROCESS. EACH COMPONENT WILL BE FIT TO STANDARD STOCHASTIC PROCESS MODELS AND THE RESULTS TESTED FOR GOODNESS-OF-FIT. PLANS WILL ALSO BE MADE TO FILL GAPS IN THE DATA BASE BY INTERPOLATION AND EXTRAPOLATION OF THE PARAMETERS IN THE FITTED MODEL.