Decision Support for Effects Based Counterterrorism Operations.

We propose an approach to supporting effects-based counterterrorism operations through the development of an intelligent decision aid system. Our approach employs a unique combination of behavior modeling, adversarial planning, and intelligence-centeredsituation assessment technologies to provide end-to-end counterterrorism Course of Action (COA) development. Central to this system will be a case-based continuous adversarial planning system utilizing technology developed for DARPA's CyberPanel program.This planner is capable of reasoning about the expected effects of actions on adversary behavior and capabilities as well as potential negative effects on our own capabilities. We will extend this system by improving our ability to model threat groups'motivations and social biases, as well as provide a means to monitor for expected changes in behavior. These capabilities will allow the PECO (Planning for Effects-based Counterterrorism Operations) system to form, critique, monitor and continuously adaptcourses of action in response to behavioral observations fraught with uncertainty. The prototype developed in Phase I will prove the feasibility of our approach and form the basis for a complete implementation of PECO in Phase II and its ultimatecommercialization. PECO will present very high value to corporations seeking to improve their ability to make strategic plans in an increasingly competitive global marketplace. The proposed technology offers Stottler Henke to seize a significantopportunity in the market for competitive intelligence tools.