Co-Orbital Threat Prediction and Assessment

Co-Orbital, focuses on providing enhanced Space Domain Awareness (SDA) via establishing an advanced framework that predicts the threatfulness of Red Space Objects (RSO) and vulnerability of Blue Space Object (BSO).  The Co-Orbital framework consists of four components (Identify Blue Reachable Set, Red Maneuver Analysis, Maneuver Likelihood and Threat Evaluation) to be used in an autonomous fashion to provide situational awareness to a decision maker. Identifying the blue reachable set uses different operators (i.e. Koopman Operator) and propagators to determine the potential location a BSO could be at given initial position an orbital parameters.  Red maneuver analysis determines the maneuver a RSO needs to perform to be threatful to a BSO at varying points in its reachable set.  This is done in its simplest form by solving lamberts problem for a variety of sampled points contained in the reachable set.  The resulting maneuvers are used within the Maneuver likelihood component as hypothesis input for a Multiple Model Adaptive Estimation (MMAE) to predict which of the calculated maneuvers are most likely given updated locations for an RSO.  The likelihoods and red maneuver calculations are then used by Threat Evaluation to determine a threatfulness ranking of RSOs against BSOs and a vulnerability ranking of the BSOs given the set of RSOs.  Threat evaluation uses the Analytic Hierarchy Process to determine weights for varying criteria that represent aspects of what a threat looks like to a BSO.  The criteria (i.e. temporal urgency, spatial reachability, and maneuver cost) weights are then used to determine the appropriate rankings to be displayed to a decision maker. Co-Orbital framework will also allow for analysis of an operator defined Course of Action as a potential maneuver for a BSO to reduce its threat profile.