Paratemporal Simulation with Uncertainty Quantification

The primary objective of this Small Business Technology Transfer (STTR) topic, ōParatemporal Simulation with Uncertainty Quantificationö, is to advance the state-of-the-art in Modeling & Simulation (M&S), where a single simulation excursion, potentially running in parallel on networks of multicore computers, is able to explore all possible scenario outcomes with maximum efficiency and fidelity. Output metrics in paratemporal simulations are represented as statistical distributions that can be formed into Measures of Performance (MOPs) and/or Measures of Effectiveness (MOEs), which can then be analyzed and/or used to make important decisions. The benefit of paratemporal simulation is that a single excursion is able to correctly explore all statistically possible future outcomes with maximum computational efficiency. To support this primary objective in a manner that (a) does not compromise fidelity, (b) optimizes run-time performance, and (c) is transparent to model developers to make it easy to use, the WarpIV strategy focuses on two critical concepts: (1) five-dimensional discrete-event simulation that is able to transparently explore parallel timeline branches that are created at key probabilistic decision points with maximum accuracy and efficiency, and (2) Statistical Algebra techniques that eliminate the need for generating random numbers by correctly and efficiently performing mathematical operations on probability distributions rather than relying on truth plus random noise. With this general focus on paratemporal five-dimensional simulation, Phase I successfully developed several critical capabilities that are summarized in the proposal. For more details on the mathematics, algorithm descriptions, verification and validation of all developed software, various performance benchmarks, model descriptions, a variety of related technologies required to support Course of Action (COA) planning as an important use case, and important lessons learned, please see the final report that was submitted to Missile Defense Agency (MDA), April 20, 2023. Approved for Public Release | 24-MDA-11673 (8 Jan 24)