Para-DEVS: Paratemporal Simulation with Uncertainty Quantification

The specific shortfall addressed in Phase I was recognition of the need by system developers for more powerful pre-implementation testing Modeling and Simulation (M&S) paradigms. To do so, a computational framework is needed to identify, characterize, propagate, analyze and reduce uncertainties in models when considered over large spans of their buildable technology spaces. Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) methods aim to provide objective confidence measurement in M&S-based predictions of performance metrics produced by stochastic simulations for which the underlying probability distributions may not be fully known or even knowable. Phase I explored paratemporal techniques in which simulations are spawned for possible branchings until successive downstream branching points are reached and the process is repeated until a satisfactory level of confidence in outcome distribution has been attained. In Phase II we seek to formalize and extend paratemporal and cloning simulation techniques that were investigated in Phase I. We seek to overcome two major hurdles to implement such techniques: Scalability, the ability to manage the combinatorial explosion of branching arising from multiple choice points, and configurability, the ability to configure newly, or reconfigure conventionally, designed M&S artifacts to enable underlying simulators to support paratemporal execution. The proposed solution exploits RTSyncÆs unique M&S capabilities based on the Discrete Event System Specification (DEVS) formalism which offers the ideal M&S framework to address the scalability challenge. Moreover, such development will occur in the environment of RTSyncÆs support of collaborative development of DEVS models for reusability and composability. The goal of Phase II is to develop a full prototype capability based on the proof-of-concept established in Phase I with the intent of testing the prototype through experimentation in government M&S labs. Prototype level user and design documentation will be developed and will facilitate cyber security approval for loading the prototype software on government computer systems through cyber aware design decisions and development of cyber security artifacts. Approved for Public Release | 24-MDA-11673 (8 Jan 24)