Near Real-Time Wildfire Prediction Alerting Service

ATAC and NCAR propose to develop a near real-time Wildfire Prediction Alerting Service (WPAS). WPAS addresses Subtopic A3.02rsquo;s need for providing wildland fire prediction for situational awareness that supports various stakeholders in the incident command structure. It develops automated near real-time wildfire predictions to alert stakeholders and provides applicable and timely information for strategic, tactical, and operational decision making. In the US, wildfires are becoming more severe and frequent, causing historic levels of acreage burned, structure damage, and lives lost. 2020 was the worst year with 59,000 wildfires, and 10.1 million acres and 17,904 structures burned. Fire suppression costs in 2021 were $4.3B and total costs exceeding $11B. WPAS paves the path for achieving NASArsquo;s goal of ensuring the highest safety and efficiency of operations for wildfire response by advancing the state of the art in multiple relevant areas: (1) WPAS leverages recent advances made by NCARrsquo;s WRF-Fire model to develop a high-resolution fire spread forecast system based on a numerical weather prediction model coupled with a wildland fire behavior model. (2) WPAS develops a near real-time inventory of wildfire spread predictions based on current wildfire incidents and conditions through integration with satellite-derived fire data via NASArsquo;s FIRMS. (3) WPAS develops wildfire specific metrics and alerts providing context in terms of location and severity of the incident and categorizes each incident with an alert level to provide actionable information for field operators. (4) WPAS supports a real-time pathway for future technologies or human observations to provide updates on fire perimeters to enable the most up-to-date wildfire spread predictions. The Phase I proof-of-concept demonstration provides actionable insights to support strategic ground and aerial asset allocation, tactical firefighting strategies, operations safety and efficiency, and community safety.