Weather Guidance Service for Upper Class E Traffic Management, Phase II

Todayrsquo;s operational wind guidance lacks turbulence forecasts in Upper Class E (UCE) airspace. Nor does it provide sufficient spatial and temporal granularity necessary to support accurate flight intent prediction. This gap threatens the economic viability and scalability of increased UCE flight operations above FL600. The proposed SBIR address these significant challenges by developing several innovations: (1) the extension of NCARrsquo;s gold-standard wind turbulence prediction model to UCE altitudes to create the first-ever UCE wind turbulence forecast model, (2) high-resolution wind forecast-driven Analytical Trajectory Simulations for several UCE vehicle types, (3) dynamic, wind- and aircraft-type-sensitive separation envelope guidance, and (4) wind-sensitive conflict detection. UWGS is highly relevant to Subtopic A3.01 because it addresses the above discussed key ATM challenges to improve efficiency, capacity, throughput, and safety of near-future (2025-30) diverse and unconventional NAS operations in UCE airspace as well as enabling more efficient high-altitude, UTM-based cooperative separation concepts. Phase I demonstrated that UWGS outperformed state-of-the-art flight intent prediction methods and provided actionable wind hazard guidance with thresholds customizable to individual vehicle types. Phase II validates and enhance Phase I methods, and develops new innovations for Separation Budget method-based separation envelope guidance, probabilistic flight intent prediction, and probabilistic wind/turbulence forecasts. UWGS supports crucial weather guidance service needs for the ETM Separation Service simulations planned by NASA ATM-Xrsquo;s xTM sub-project. UWGS also provides a digital service for integration into NASA ATM-Xrsquo;s DIP sub-projectrsquo;s Digital Information Platform. Anticipated results are a working prototype Supplemental Data Service for one or more high-value customer applications, which will be chosen in coordination with NASA, FAA, and ETM operators.nbsp;