A Simulation Framework for Assessing Variability in Human Performance and Decision-Making on Tactics, Techniques, and Procedures (TTP) Execution

Energy and Security Group (ESG) and our partner Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) will implement TTPSim, a proposed Monte-Carlo discrete-event modeling and simulation (M&S) framework that combines computational approaches from systems engineering, simulation, and cognitive and social psychology to explore the impacts of human operator performance and variability on tactics, techniques, and procedures (TTP) execution and outcomes. We will develop an missile defense scenario and decision model representing operator behavior and implement the scenario within TTPSim. Our proposed M&S framework, TTPSim, framework is TTP-independent and models variation in task assignment, task execution time, operator characteristics, decision criteria, and engagement characteristics. TTPs can be modeled at multiple levels of resolution and complexity depending on the available information and analysis needs. Analysts can use TTPSim to assess variability in key task execution and decision-making and identify and mitigate areas of risk to improve overall performance. This modeling framework will provide an ideal environment for refining and optimizing current TTPs or developing new TTPs. Should implementation of a Beta version of TTPSim be successful, this project will have advanced the state of the art by creating an innovative simulation framework that integrates high-fidelity system, task, and human performance modeling. Approved for Public Release |21-MDA-10789 (21 Apr 21)