HIGH FIDELITY BREAKUP MODELING FOR ENHANCED RESIDENT SPACE OBJECT TRACKING

DoD, NASA, and commercial space flight stakeholders have an ongoing interest in detecting and cataloguing GEO space debris but are limited by existing debris breakup models feeding their conjunction analysis tools such as NASA’s Standard Satellite Breakup Model (SSBM), which has been shown to be inadequate for GEO conjunction events. In particular, NASA’s SSBM provides poor fits to mass distributions and area/mass ratios (AMR) for low-velocity impacts as expected at GEO/GTO altitudes. GEO/GEO and GEO/GTO collisions are assumed to occur at an upper limit of 800 m/s or 1.5 km/s respectively, although recent analysis using USSTRATCOM’s Conjunction Data Messages (CDMs) has indicated that collisions up to 3.2 km/s are also possible. Additionally, the NASA standard breakup model is tailored for generic bodies without evaluating dependencies such as material or unique geometry considerations. Corvid, in partnership with Spectral Sciences (SSI) and Cloudstone Innovations, will leverage high-fidelity first principles hydro-structural codes and post-processing tools for enhanced space debris trajectory prediction, with a particular emphasis on GEO. This high-fidelity debris fragmentation characterization will supplement legacy analytical breakup models used in current conjunction analysis tools for increased fidelity in conjunction risk assessments. Corvid’s approach will adapt their existing post intercept debris (PID) toolsets currently used across the Missile Defense Agency (MDA) to integrate high fidelity debris databases into the existing conjunction analysis tools. Corvid’s high-fidelity hydro-structural solver Velodyne will be used to generate debris databases of the extensive engagement space associated with satellite conjunction events. In order to cover this engagement space, Corvid will adapt          its Virtual Environment for Realistic Interceptor and Threat Analysis and Simulation (VeritasTM) simulation framework. VeritasTM supports interpolation between multiple VelodyneTM simulations within a larger PID database covering the relevant engagement phase space. The debris field physical properties generated by Velodyne/Veritas include fragment size, shape, temperature, material, velocity, etc. to inform both radar and optical signature models and corresponding PID sensor scenes. The Velodyne Optical Post-Processing Tool (VOPPTTM) is a software package developed with SSI. The proposed approach will leverage VelodyneTM/VeritasTM/VOPPTTM to generate representative debris fields for conjunction or fragmentation events at a much higher fidelity than existing models.