Detection Rate Improvements Through Understanding and Modeling Ocean Variability --- Phase II -- MP-18-103

Transmission loss (TL) is a key input to the sonar equation for predicting the ability of an active sonar system to detect and track a target of interest. The proposed technical effort centers on developing physics-based models to interpret and predict TL variability. The concept under development consists of a model that consumes modeled and in situ oceanographic information, estimates the likelihood of occurrence of various physical phenomena that lead to TL variability, and leverages Navy-standard propagation modeling tools to estimate a probability density function for TL. Metron and APL-UW will be collaborating very closely on most aspects of this project. APL-UW will focus primarily on the physics that drive variability, and Metron will focus on leveraging Navy-standard tools to build statistical representations that are readily consumable by tactical decision aids (TDAs).