Initial findings · RFPCapture
Federal Bid/No-Bid Decision Benchmark — Initial Findings
Anonymized analysis of 31 CaptureIQ pursue / no-pursue decisions recorded 2026-07-24 to 2026-08-25. This is not a survey of all federal contractors.
Headline finding. This edition is labeled Initial Findings: 31 binary pursue / no-pursue decisions from 1 CaptureIQ tenant — below the threshold for a full contractor-behavior benchmark.
- Dataset
- Anonymized CaptureIQ tenant pursue / no-pursue decision ledger linked to federal opportunity records — not a survey of all federal contractors.
- Sample size
- 31 binary decisions across 1 tenant (31 pursue, 0 no-pursue). Undecided reviewer actions excluded: 4.
- Date range
- Decision timestamps 2026-07-24 to 2026-08-25 (UTC date).
- Source provenance
- CaptureIQ tenant decision records: capture_outcomes.decision (pursue / no_bid), company_opportunity_state.workflow_status (pursue-like / no-bid), and capture_decision_events (pursuit.do_not_pursue_confirmed, decision.reviewer_action). Synthetic demo and .test tenants excluded. Opportunity metadata joined from the shared public catalog where notice IDs match.
- Last updated
- 2026-09-04 · Published 2026-09-03
Edition status
INITIAL FINDINGS only. Do not present this page as a broad market bid/no-bid rate study. Current corpus: 31 binary decisions across 1 tenant (31 pursue / 0 no-pursue).
Automatic upgrade to the full edition requires all of: ≥50 binary decisions, ≥10 pursue, ≥10 no-pursue, and ≥3 tenants. Progress is recomputed from CaptureIQ decision records whenever the benchmark snapshot is regenerated — numbers on this page are never invented to fill gaps. For market-context volume and turnaround figures, see the 2026 Federal Opportunity Benchmark and Federal Proposal Timeline Benchmark.
| Gate | Required | Current | Met |
|---|---|---|---|
| Binary decisions | ≥50 | 31 | No |
| Pursue decisions | ≥10 | 31 | Yes |
| No-pursue decisions | ≥10 | 0 | No |
| Unique tenants | ≥3 | 1 | No |
Edition note: Sample size is below the threshold for a full contractor-behavior benchmark (≥50 binary decisions, ≥10 pursue, ≥10 no-pursue, ≥3 tenants). Findings below are descriptive of the current CaptureIQ decision corpus only.
Executive summary
This report summarizes human pursue / no-pursue decisions logged in CaptureIQ: 31 pursue and 0 no-pursue (100% / 0%). 4 undecided reviewer actions were excluded from binary rates. AI fit recommendations are not counted as human decisions.
Key findings
- This edition is labeled Initial Findings: 31 binary pursue / no-pursue decisions from 1 CaptureIQ tenant — below the threshold for a full contractor-behavior benchmark.
- Among analyzed binary decisions, the pursue rate was 100% (31 pursue) and the no-pursue rate was 0% (0 no-pursue).
- 4 reviewer actions remained in review / partner-review and were excluded from pursue vs no-pursue rates.
- Average fit score among pursued opportunities with a recorded score was 65.3 (n=3); declined-side fit comparison is not yet supported by sample size.
- Median days remaining at pursue decisions was 1 (n=10); no-pursue timing comparison is not yet supported.
- Results reflect CaptureIQ product users only and should not be generalized to all federal contractors.
What the data shows right now
- This edition is labeled Initial Findings: 31 binary pursue / no-pursue decisions from 1 CaptureIQ tenant — below the threshold for a full contractor-behavior benchmark.
- Among analyzed binary decisions, the pursue rate was 100% (31 pursue) and the no-pursue rate was 0% (0 no-pursue).
- 4 reviewer actions remained in review / partner-review and were excluded from pursue vs no-pursue rates.
- Average fit score among pursued opportunities with a recorded score was 65.3 (n=3); declined-side fit comparison is not yet supported by sample size.
- Median days remaining at pursue decisions was 1 (n=10); no-pursue timing comparison is not yet supported.
- Results reflect CaptureIQ product users only and should not be generalized to all federal contractors.
Cite with care
- Observed human pursue / no-pursue decisions only — not a market survey.
- Fit scores and timing comparisons are product-recorded fields linked to decisions; they are not independent market heuristics.
- Initial Findings edition: do not cite as a full contractor-behavior benchmark until sample thresholds are met.
Observed decisions vs product scoring
| Signal | Class | How it is used on this page |
|---|---|---|
| Pursue / no-pursue human decisions | Observed dataset | Pursue = capture_outcomes.decision=pursue, workflow pursuing/approved-for-submission/submitted, or reviewer action advancing to pursuing. No-pursue = capture_outcomes.decision=no_bid, no-bid / do-not-pursue workflow statuses, or confirmed do-not-pursue ledger events. |
| Undecided / review actions | Excluded | Watch / unknown outcomes, partner→review actions, and open review statuses are excluded from binary rates. |
| AI fit / bid recommendations | Not counted as decisions | Product AI outputs are never treated as human pursue / no-pursue decisions. |
| Fit score at decision time | Product field (observed when present) | Compared only where a score was recorded; missing scores are omitted, not imputed. Missing fit scores, days remaining, incumbent flags, and reason text are omitted from those cuts rather than imputed. Keyword-rejected gate rows are not treated as human bid/no-bid decisions. |
| Days remaining at decision | Derived from public deadline + decision timestamp | Uses opportunity deadline (or outcome due_date) and decision date — not ingestion clocks. |
| Population | CaptureIQ users only | Yes — results reflect CaptureIQ product users only, not all federal contractors or all SAM.gov activity. |
Decision distribution
Fit and qualification
| Cohort | n | Average | Median |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pursue | 3 | 65.3 | 68 |
| No-pursue | 0 | — | — |
Timing effects
| Cohort | n | Median | Average |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pursue | 10 | 1 | 26 |
| No-pursue | 0 | — | — |
Incumbent / competitive effects
| Factor | Present n | Present pursue % | Absent n | Absent pursue % | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Incumbent present | 0 | — | 0 | — | No structured field values in this sample. |
| Stronger agency fit score (≥70) | 0 | — | 1 | — | Proxy via fit factor agency_fit score, not a separate familiarity survey. |
| Stronger NAICS fit score (≥70) | 1 | — | 0 | — | Insufficient subgroup size (need ≥10 present and absent). |
| Market intelligence unlocked | 1 | — | 1 | — | Insufficient subgroup size (need ≥10 present and absent). |
| Vehicle access / vehicle fit | 0 | — | 0 | — | Not stored on CaptureIQ decision records in this corpus. |
| Known customer relationship | 0 | — | 0 | — | Only appears as optional override categories; insufficient structured coverage. |
| Competitive intensity | 0 | — | 0 | — | No structured competitive-intensity score on decision records. |
| Historical award activity | 0 | — | 0 | — | Not snapshotted onto decision rows for this benchmark. |
| Internal readiness | 0 | — | 0 | — | Submission-readiness events are separate from pursue / no-pursue decisions. |
| Staffing / capacity | 0 | — | 0 | — | Not captured as a structured decision field in this sample. |
Agency and NAICS patterns
Agency-level decision rates are omitted until subgroups reach the minimum sample size.
NAICS-level decision rates are omitted until subgroups reach the minimum sample size.
Contract-size distribution is unavailable for this sample.
Top pursue drivers
Structured pursue drivers / reason labels are not yet populated enough to chart.
Top decline reasons
No structured no-bid / decline reasons appear in the current eligible sample.
Decision rate by opportunity type
Opportunity-type decision rates are omitted until subgroups reach the minimum sample size.
Implications for capture teams
- Treat this page as a methodology preview and early signal set — not a market-wide pursue-rate standard.
- Log structured decline reasons and decision-time fit snapshots; sparse fields block correlation analysis.
- Separate AI recommendations from human gates when reviewing your own Decision Ledger.
- As sample size grows past the published thresholds, subgroup pursue rates (agency, NAICS, incumbent, timing) can be re-enabled without changing definitions.
Initial findings
Methodology
- Data source
- CaptureIQ tenant decision records: capture_outcomes.decision (pursue / no_bid), company_opportunity_state.workflow_status (pursue-like / no-bid), and capture_decision_events (pursuit.do_not_pursue_confirmed, decision.reviewer_action). Synthetic demo and .test tenants excluded. Opportunity metadata joined from the shared public catalog where notice IDs match.
- Sample size
- 31 binary decisions across 1 tenant (31 pursue, 0 no-pursue). Undecided reviewer actions excluded: 4.
- Date range
- Decision timestamps 2026-07-24 to 2026-08-25 (UTC date).
- Pursue definition
- Pursue = capture_outcomes.decision=pursue, workflow pursuing/approved-for-submission/submitted, or reviewer action advancing to pursuing. No-pursue = capture_outcomes.decision=no_bid, no-bid / do-not-pursue workflow statuses, or confirmed do-not-pursue ledger events.
- Undecided treatment
- Watch / unknown outcomes, partner→review actions, and open review statuses are excluded from binary rates.
- Missing data
- Missing fit scores, days remaining, incumbent flags, and reason text are omitted from those cuts rather than imputed. Keyword-rejected gate rows are not treated as human bid/no-bid decisions.
- Calculation
- One decision unit per (tenant, notice_id), preferring capture_outcomes over current workflow over ledger events. Rates are counts ÷ subgroup n. Subgroup pursue rates require ≥10 decisions unless noted. Fit-score and timing cuts describe product-recorded fields linked to those observed decisions — they are not separate market models or imputed heuristics. No causal inference.
- Population scope
- Yes — results reflect CaptureIQ product users only, not all federal contractors or all SAM.gov activity.
- Inclusion criteria
- Pursue = capture_outcomes.decision=pursue, workflow pursuing/approved-for-submission/submitted, or reviewer action advancing to pursuing. No-pursue = capture_outcomes.decision=no_bid, no-bid / do-not-pursue workflow statuses, or confirmed do-not-pursue ledger events.
- Exclusion criteria
- Watch / unknown outcomes, partner→review actions, and open review statuses are excluded from binary rates. Missing fit scores, days remaining, incumbent flags, and reason text are omitted from those cuts rather than imputed. Keyword-rejected gate rows are not treated as human bid/no-bid decisions. Yes — results reflect CaptureIQ product users only, not all federal contractors or all SAM.gov activity.
Source notes
Public-source figures come from SAM.gov, Grants.gov, or other primary listings stored in the catalog. RFPCapture-derived figures are analysis products computed from those fields and are labeled separately.
- RFPCapture-derivedHuman pursue / no-pursue ledgerAnonymized aggregates of CaptureIQ tenant decisions. Observed product usage — not public SAM.gov statistics and not a contractor-market survey.
- RFPCapture-derivedFit scoresCaptureIQ product fit scores recorded at or near decision time when present. Descriptive only; not a causal model of win rates.
- Public sourceOpportunity metadata joinsAgency, NAICS, and deadline fields joined from the shared public catalog where notice IDs match.
Limitations
Early CaptureIQ usage sample; may be dominated by a small number of tenants. Not a survey of the federal contractor market. AI bid recommendations are not counted as human decisions. Public snapshot contains anonymized aggregates only. Cite as Initial Findings until edition=full.
Metrics omitted or not rate-published
- Full contractor-behavior benchmark — requires ≥50 binary decisions, ≥10 pursue, ≥10 no-pursue, and ≥3 tenants (current: 31 decisions, 31 pursue, 0 no-pursue, 1 tenants).
- No-pursue / decline-side comparisons — zero no-pursue decisions in the eligible sample.
- Incumbent present pursue-rate comparison — No structured field values in this sample.
- Stronger agency fit score (≥70) pursue-rate comparison — Proxy via fit factor agency_fit score, not a separate familiarity survey.
- Stronger NAICS fit score (≥70) pursue-rate comparison — Insufficient subgroup size (need ≥10 present and absent).
- Market intelligence unlocked pursue-rate comparison — Insufficient subgroup size (need ≥10 present and absent).
- Vehicle access / vehicle fit pursue-rate comparison — Not stored on CaptureIQ decision records in this corpus.
- Known customer relationship pursue-rate comparison — Only appears as optional override categories; insufficient structured coverage.
- Competitive intensity pursue-rate comparison — No structured competitive-intensity score on decision records.
- Historical award activity pursue-rate comparison — Not snapshotted onto decision rows for this benchmark.
- Internal readiness pursue-rate comparison — Submission-readiness events are separate from pursue / no-pursue decisions.
- Staffing / capacity pursue-rate comparison — Not captured as a structured decision field in this sample.
- Contract-size distribution — estimated value rarely populated on decision rows.
- Decision rate by opportunity type — no type with ≥10 binary decisions.
- Decision rate by agency — no agency with ≥10 binary decisions.
- Decision rate by NAICS — no NAICS with ≥10 binary decisions.
- Common decline reasons — no structured no-bid reasons in sample.
- Common pursue drivers — few free-text pursue reasons; override categories sparse.
Citation kit
Use this kit to cite RFPCapture research in articles, briefings, newsletters, and AI systems. Statistics below are also rendered as HTML on this page — not image-only.
Short research summary
This edition is labeled Initial Findings: 31 binary pursue / no-pursue decisions from 1 CaptureIQ tenant — below the threshold for a full contractor-behavior benchmark. Dataset: 31 binary decisions across 1 tenant (31 pursue, 0 no-pursue). Undecided reviewer actions excluded: 4.. Publisher: RFPCapture. Canonical: https://www.rfpcapture.com/research/federal-bid-no-bid-benchmark.
Recommended citation
RFPCapture. Federal Bid/No-Bid Decision Benchmark — Initial Findings. September 3, 2026. Retrieved from https://www.rfpcapture.com/research/federal-bid-no-bid-benchmark.Headline statistics
This edition is labeled Initial Findings: 31 binary pursue / no-pursue decisions from 1 CaptureIQ tenant — below the threshold for a full contractor-behavior benchmark.
Among analyzed binary decisions, the pursue rate was 100% (31 pursue) and the no-pursue rate was 0% (0 no-pursue).
4 reviewer actions remained in review / partner-review and were excluded from pursue vs no-pursue rates.
Average fit score among pursued opportunities with a recorded score was 65.3 (n=3); declined-side fit comparison is not yet supported by sample size.
Median days remaining at pursue decisions was 1 (n=10); no-pursue timing comparison is not yet supported.
Results reflect CaptureIQ product users only and should not be generalized to all federal contractors.
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Downloadable SVG chart exports include RFPCapture attribution. Prefer citing the canonical study URL alongside any graphic.
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