Modeling and Simulation (M&S) Uncertainty Quantification Using an Ant Swarm Model

STTR Phase I Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) technical feasibility demonstration using advanced mathematical techniques and Biologically Inspired Computing Architecture (BICA) concepts is proposed for Phase II prototype development. UQ in complex System of Systems (SoS) M & S environments is emphasized in Phase II. Graph theory based M & S techniques are explored that enhance and facilitate topical UQ techniques to enrich the value delivered by M & S of complex systems. As systems become more complex, this deeper understanding of complex SoSs through the use of M & S and UQ is an imperative for informing early trades in the development lifecycle. Needs of decision makers are better served by quantitative Systems Engineering (SE) M & S and UQ techniques using a combination of mathematical and advanced methodologies presented. M & S challenges of performance, fidelity and approximations are joined with new challenges such as emergent behavior influenced by aleatoric and epistemic uncertainty. The Phase II proposes development of a UQ System Application for use in legacy and Graph theory based M & S techniques. The goal is to motivate a paradigm shift through a SE Community of Practice (COP) that delivers new levels of quantitative information and value from complex SoS M & S. Approved for Public Release 14-MDA-7739 (18 March 14).