M&S Uncertainty Quantification Using an Ant Swarm Model

Appropriate models for missile defense systems (MDS) need to include both epistemic and aleatoric variables. This prevents the calculation of conventional confidence intervals and significance levels for the models, since these require that a statistical probability distribution be assumed wherever one is not actually known. Our proposed uncertainty quantification system will provide BMD with an overall measure of uncertainty that incorporates both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainty using an ant swarm model borrowed from nature. In addition, it provides a graphical presentation of overall uncertainty. The uncertainty quantification system will also provide indicators of combinations of variables which cause the M & S system under study to produce exceptionally high, exceptionally low, or exceptionally rapidly changing output.