EMU - Economic Modeling of Uncertainty

ABSTRACT: The Design Knowledge Company"s Economic Modeling of Uncertainty (EMU) program presents an innovative, cost-effective, and deployable solution that enables rapid understanding and prioritization of conjunction events. Our program advances state-of-the-art in enabling more precise and more frequent filtering and assessments. By using revolutionary risk metrics, we help the operators determine what needs to be done to reduce risks and to mitigate those risks deemed the highest priority. Our program utilizes applied math and computer science based quantitative and theoretical analysis of the collision detection and collision avoidance mission (CD/COLA) problem to deliver a TRL-6 ready capability to efficiently address the problem and advance the state-of-the-art for the space operator. Our Phase II program will seek to help the space operators to understand the probability of collision, the uncertainty in current estimates, and the differences in risks across the operational domain. Our EMU management plan incorporates user feedback for development with the intended user in mind, and being able to adjust the developments based on real user feedback. Our EMU program is founded on human factors and usability technologies that will help users understand and ultimately buy-into the technology and developed system. BENEFIT: Our EMU program will directly benefit the space warfighter in not only easily understanding the space situation awareness domain of conjunctions and an"at-a-glance"understanding, but allowing users to understand the quantified risks associated with future potential collisions. This is a huge operational and cost benefit as it helps enable safety of flight for our space-based assets. Our EMU Phase I system has already proven significant improvements over existing capabilities and will further that through the development and implementation of the prototype algorithms and visualizations into the actual EMU system. Combined with a vastly improved efficiency,"at-a-glance"recognition, and space warfighter understanding of the future/potential risks, the EMU program is critical to our warfighter mission.