EMU - Economic Modeling of Uncertainty

ABSTRACT: Generally it"s not reasonable to expect that a satellite operator can effectively filter a list containing thousands of entries to identify the most important conjunctions. The need here is to prioritize the list to a more manageable level. However, we believe that the problem is, in fact, in a richer decision space. Identification, ranking, or filtering is important, but often insufficient. Operators must be presented a tradeoff space. The problem of ranking and identifying conjunctions that are most important to operations cannot be performed independently of the process of acquiring orbital data. Automated tools must be available to recommend a course of action and to inform users of the cost of their choice. Our proposed Economic Modeling of Uncertainty (EMU) Phase I SBIR includes: (1) the development of an in-depth technical model (including data, dependencies, and organizational requirements) of the Joint Space Operations Center (JSpOC) collision detection and avoidance mission; (2) the reformulation of the JSpOC mission as an economic optimization problem; and (3) the development of JMS UDOP-compatible software tools that relay data from the optimization domain to end users as a decision aid. BENEFIT: EMU has direct application to current Air Force programs including the JSpOC Mission System (JMS), WebISSA, and RAIDRS. The cost estimation and conjunction algorithms have application to commercial satellite operations and networks as well.