Client-Centered Calibration of the NOAA Climate Forecast System

Prescient Weather process five integrated Phase II tasks to increase the value of the NOAA Climate Forecast System and to assist the private sector in managing weather and climate risk and opportunity: The Phase II tasks are: (1) Develop an optimal WCS seasonal multi-model ensemble by calibrating and combining the NWS CFSv2, the ECMWF SFSv4, and the new National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) to create more skillful operational seasonal forecasts; (2) Develop an optimal WCS weekly forecast ensemble from the same models and then create an operational multi-model probability forecast; (3) Develop probability forecasts for impact variables critical in agriculture, energy, and renewable energy on the weekly, monthly, and seasonal scale; (4) Develop effective methods for combining probability forecasts, business models, and forecast performance statistics to enable users to act on the forecast with confidence in the consequences; (5) Complete and implement the Internet-based Seasonal and Subseasonal Prediction, Information, and Decision Support System (SSPIDSS) as the interactive workspace to support decision-making. The SSPIDSS implementation will focus on the client decision context, presenting a tier of probabilistic forecasts of meteorological and industry variables on the scale of seasons for long-range strategy, months and weeks for tactical adjustments, and days for immediate action.