Weather Impact Probability Forecasting (WIPCast)

A fundamental shift in weather forecasting"from a deterministic approach to one that embraces communication of forecast uncertainty"is crucial to advancing the science of weather prediction. The most promising technique today for generating probabilistic forecasts is the combination of ensemble forecasting with statistical post-processing to help quantify weather-related risk. The importance of this capability to the success of U.S. military operations and weather-sensitive businesses cannot be overstated. In particular, using probabilistic forecasts to quantify anticipated weather impacts, in conjunction with techniques for quantifying a users risk tolerance, can yield a powerful decision support tool that substantially enhances the risk analysis process. Toward that end, Impact Computing has teamed with the University of Washingtons Department of Atmospheric Sciences to create an innovative Weather Impact Probability Forecast (WIPCast) solution, building upon the seminal work of Dr. Tony Eckel in the domain of probabilistic forecasting and its practical application. The ultimate objective of the proposed Phase II effort is an operational version of the WIPCast system, building upon our successful Phase I design and prototyping activities. Specific Phase II technical objectives consist of addressing Phase I open issues, addressing key requirements of the operational system, and laying the groundwork for WIPCast productization.