A Real-Time Probabilistic Aviation Decision Aid Based on Mesoscale Weather Ensemble Forecasting

Impact Technologies, LLC, in partnership with the Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms at the University of Oklahoma, proposes to develop a real-time, accurate, and reliable mesoscale ensemble forecasting for the probabilistic analysis of adverse weather in a 4-D framework to assist aviation decisions in terms of mission planning, enroute re-planning, and risk management. To improve the reliability and effectiveness of mission operations, the probabilistic approach fuses weather forecasts with established planning techniques so that commanders are able to plan the mission adaptively and optimally. Key elements include mesoscale ensemble forecasting based on the WRF model, extraction/interpolation of probabilities associated with adverse weather, mission planning/re-planning based on D*-Lite and rapidly-exploring random tree, and insurance-inspired risk management. The proposed system requires no meteorological interpretation by commanders and, therefore, provides tangible benefits to stakeholders at all echelons. In the Phase I, we will define, prototype and demonstrate the proposed solution within a highly modular structure such that it can be extended to provide enhancement to the deployed weather support tools such as AWRT and IWEDA. In the following phases, Impact will work closely with CAPS and OEM partners to develop a technology transition plan for military and commercial applications.